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Everyone knows that you need a good credit score to get a mortgage.  Most even know that your score will affect the rate and fees you pay for your loan; but few are aware that your credit score also is a determinant of your homeowners’ and auto insurance rates and a myriad of other things.

Simply put, your FICO Score has a huge impact on your financial life.  So, how can we get the best possible score?

There are five components to your score:

1. Your Credit History makes up 35% of your score.

This is obvious.  How you have paid your responsibilities before is a good predictor of how you will pay them in the future.  While your credit profile will look back seven  years, the most weight is given to your activity and performance over the last 24 months.  Here’s a little known tip about your credit.  Let’s say, you have a “charge off” for a cell phone bill you didn’t pay 5 years ago.  Today, that “charge off” has little impact on your score.  Many people, as they prepare to buy a home, will just pay the “charge off” to clean up their credit report.  Makes sense, doesn’t it?  However, by doing this, you will move the activity on the “charge off” to now (which is in the two year window), actually lowering your score.  Before you do anything like this, talk to your mortgage professional!

 2. Your Amount of Credit makes up 30% of your score.

Now, this is not your total amount of outstanding debt (as you might assume), it is the amount of debt you have divided by the amount of debt you have available to you.  As an example, a client who owes $5000 on their one credit card that has a $5000 limit will have a lower score, than a client who owes $100,000 in credit card debt, but has $250,000 in available credit lines because their percentage of usage is lower.   Optimally, you want to target 30% or less usage of your available credit.   Many people cancel some of their credit cards before applying for a mortgage because they think it will help their application, since (logically) they think less credit availability means they are less likely to “get in trouble” and that’s a good thing.  They are WRONG.  Canceling those cards lowers the amount of available credit, driving their percentage of usage higher, lowering their score.

3. Your Length of Credit History makes up 15% of your score.

This makes sense too.  A consumer who has paid all their bills for 20 years deserves a better score than someone who has paid their bills on time for 20 months.  This is another instance where some people cancel credit cards and it hurts them because the cards they cancel reflect a longer payment history.  Be careful to consider this factor before deleting any account from your credit history.

4. The Types of Credit You Use makes up 10% of your score.

Mortgage payments, auto and student loans (really installment debt of any kind) are weighted most.  The payment is typically fixed in amount and due date; therefore, “missing a payment” on one of these accounts usually indicates a problem more than carelessness.  Your major credit cards (like Visa and MasterCard) have variable payments and due dates.  Additionally, there are times when you buy something and return it, but during the time in between a bill was issued.  You get the bill.  You know the item was returned.  So, you don’t make a payment.  The credit card company can still report you for missing a payment (damaging your score).  This is why store-issued credit cards carry even less importance.  They love reporting you late to make it harder for you to get a credit card at a competing store.

5. Your Credit Inquiries make up 10% of your score.

The scoring models now cluster your inquiries.  What that means is that if multiple people within an industry run your credit within a 45 day time period (you’re shopping for a car or mortgage, for example), all those inquiries are treated as one.  But, if you shop for a mortgage and a car at the same time you are trying to increase your credit card limits and get life insurance, your score can be lowered by as many as 55 points.

You need to be aware of what your actions can do to your score. 

People often ask how they should determine with whom they should market their house. Aren’t real estate agents really all the same? Don’t they all do the same thing? Shouldn’t I just hire the one that charges me the lowest commission rate?

The answer to each of these questions is NO!

In any other profession, there are good and not so good practitioners. Real estate is no different. How long it will take to sell your home will be determined by the quality of agent you hire. The price you will receive will be determined by the agent you select.

How can you tell the pretenders from the professionals?

Here is a good checklist to use when interviewing potential agents:

The pretenders tell you what you want to hear. The professionals tell you everything you need to know.

The pretenders worry about your feelings and place great emphasis on whether or not you will like them. The professionals worry about your family and how they can help.

The pretenders are afraid you will ask a lot of questions about the changes in the current real estate market. The professionals take the time to simply and effectively explain your options in today’s rapidly evolving market.

The pretenders will spend the majority of time talking about themselves and their company. The professionals will spend the majority of time talking about your family’s needs and goals and how they plan to help you reach them.

The pretenders think you hired them to list the house. The professionals realize you hired them to do one thing – get the house sold.

I hope I helped you do two things:

  • Realize there are major differences in the professionalism of real estate agents
  • There is a way to determine the true professional during the interview process.

Congratulations on the sale of your South Charlotte house!  Best wishes for your new home in Huntersville.  Thank you for the great testimonial. 

Sincerely, Brian

More and more homeowners are questioning whether they should keep their homes on the market or wait until next year to sell. The thinking obviously is that next year the market will be better and therefore they will be able to garner a higher price. But, is that true? Is there any evidence that the market will come roaring back next spring? The evidence actually points to the exact opposite. Most experts are predicting that we will not see appreciation until the end of 2012 and even then the appreciation will be minimal.

The MacroMarkets LLC co-founder and Chief Economist is Robert Shiller, the founder of the S&P Case Shiller Report. Professor Shiller surveys 109 economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists each month for the their Home Price Expectations Survey. In the July survey, it was reported:

Mean Cummulative Change from Current Pricing

“The consensus indicates diminished confidence in the prospects for a near term recovery … This month, 60% of the panelists projected negative home price growth for 2010.”

That percentage was up from 40% just two months ago! 

 
 
The survey went on to say:

“The July survey results also revealed a less optimistic longer-term home price forecast. Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets Managing Director, remarked, “Although still positive, the average outlook for five-year cumulative home price appreciation fell in July for the second consecutive month, and is now in single-digit territory. This new consensus suggests a less robust housing recovery scenario.”

The experts are predicting that cumulative appreciation will not reach positive numbers until the end of 2012 and will still be under 10% by 2014.

 What does this mean to you?

If you are thinking of waiting for the market to show appreciation before selling your home, you have a two year wait not a one year wait. And if you are looking for double digit appreciation, it is five years away. Perhaps it is best to sell now and get on with the things in your life that caused you to think about moving in the first place.

Supply and Demand

Supply Goes Up, Prices Come Down.  It’s that SIMPLE.

The big question in real estate is what will happen with home prices over the next few months. The experts have already weighed-in predicting prices will probably take another dip down. The reasoning? Put simply, the inventory of homes on the market is greater than the demand for housing.

Demand will remain stable at best. No study or report is predicting a dramatic increase in demand over previous estimates. PMI, Inc. is actually cutting their forecast back. In their most recent issue of The Home and Mortgage Market Review they announced:

“We have lowered our projection of home sales for 2010 in response to the larger-than-expected decline in sales in May.”

If demand doesn’t increase, the supply of inventory will determine future prices. Here is a great industry guideline that has withstood the test of time:

  • 1-4 months inventory means it is a sellers’ market and we can expect appreciation.
  • 5-6 months inventory means it is a balanced market with prices following inflation.
  • 7+ months inventory means it is a buyers’ market and we can expect depreciation.

According to the National association of Realtors (NAR), there is currently an 8.9 month supply of housing inventory on the market. Here is a graph showing how the months supply of inventory has increased since last November:

Calculated Risk addressed this point recently by saying:

“For July, if sales fall to 4.5 million (it could be lower) and inventory is still at 3.9 million units, months of supply will rise to 10.4 months. I think these estimates are conservative (actual will probably be higher). For reference, the all time record high was 11.2 months of supply in 2008. This level of supply will put additional downward pressure on house prices.”

Couple this with the fact that banks will repossess approximately a million foreclosed homes this year and you realize the supply of housing inventory could jump to numbers close to those we experienced when home prices were falling dramatically.

 1. Real Estate is a Great Long Term Investment

Mike Mandel, former chief economist at BusinessWeek and current Senior Fellow at Wharton’s Mack Center for Technological Innovation, said:

“We’ve just had the biggest boom and bust in real estate in recent history. Nevertheless, real estate has still greatly outperformed the stock market over the past ten years.”

Below is his chart actually showing the difference between real estate and the stock market.

2. A Home Is a Better Place to Raise a Family

When Fannie Mae asked current renters for the major reason to buy a house in their  National Housing Survey 2010, these were the answers renters gave (they could pick multiple answers):

  • 78% said it was a good place to raise children
  • 75% said because they would feel safe
  • 70% said because you have control of your own space

3. A Home Creates a Sense of Community

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York just published a paper The Homeownership Gap. The paper explained:

“Because owners have a financial interest in their property, they have incentives to take measures that will maintain or increase the value of that property. Some of these measures—such as fixing a leaky roof—are closely related to the house itself. Others, such as investing resources in the betterment of the neighborhood and the community, have broader beneficial effects on the local area, creating what economists call “positive externalities.”

4. It’s Cheaper to Own Than Rent in Many Parts of the Country

Housing Wire just reported on a Credit Suisse study:

“While a segment of the renting population continues to rent, many are looking to dip their toes in the homeownership waters. Credit Suisse said the percentage of median household income needed to pay the mortgage on a median priced home is at a 30-year low… Low mortgage rates and property values makes homeownership more attractive than renting for many. In many markets — including Washington DC, California’s Inland Empire, Las Vegas and Phoenix — paying for a mortgage is less expensive than renting.”

And here is a graph from the study:

5. The People Who Do Buy a Home Don’t Regret It

Probably the best people to ask if buying a home makes sense are the people who currently own homes. A recent national poll commissioned by Bankrate.com found:

Ninety percent of homeowners say they don’t regret buying their home despite a nationwide tsunami of foreclosures, short sales and loan modifications.

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